Soda ash production trend, high inventory, potential incremental trend, declining supply and demand, and declining market base demand.
From the statistics of soda ash consumption from 2017 to 2021, downstream consumption shows a steady and rising trend, and individual industries grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.32%. For soda ash, the downstream is divided into light soda ash downstream and heavy soda ash downstream. Among them, the downstream of light soda ash is relatively saturated, the annual change is small, and the demand for soda ash is relatively stable. The downstream performance of heavy soda ash increased, mainly reflected in the float glass and photovoltaic glass industries. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the consumption of soda ash in 2017 was 25.39 million tons. In 2018, the consumption was 25.03 million tons, showing a downward trend year-on-year. Some downstream industries were affected by environmental protection, and the installations were shut down or reduced. In 2019 and 2020, the consumption was 26.45 million tons, which remained stable. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the performance was weak in the first half of the year, and basically returned to normal in the second half, and the price of soda ash was low, and the downstream purchasing mentality was positive. In 2021, the demand for soda ash will show an increasing trend, and the demand is mainly concentrated in photovoltaics and float. For 2022, the soda ash market is still worth looking forward to. It is expected that the overall demand will maintain an upward trend. The increase in demand is mainly reflected in the potential increase of photovoltaics. In addition, there will be a small increase in light-weight individual industries.